Who can blame him, though, for predicting the Falcons would be a two-win team in 2008? Just finding a pulse, many reasoned, could be a challenge.

Their 2007 season had been a biblical plague. The roster had been flushed. They were starting the 2008 season with a rookie quarterback, a new Gen X GM and an untested head coach.

"I don't really keep track of my misses," the good doctor said this week, "but I'd have to say that one would rank up there [with the biggest]."

The team that hope forgot is now 6-4, playing Carolina at a sold-out Georgia Dome today in a game with actual playoff undertones. Few would have predicted the Falcons still would be viable 10 games into the schedule. But virtually overnight, they have lifted themselves from the mire of the worst season ever and transfused their fans with belief.

To its credit, the Falcons brass is showing no signs of smugness these days.

"That's OK if he missed," owner Arthur Blank said of Dr. Z's prognostication, as well as all the others like it. "It wasn't about proving anyone wrong or right. Listen, it's a matter of getting the train moving in the right direction."

Moving on

Whatever happens from here, the Falcons stand to be one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL. They have defied conventional belief and even bucked Las Vegas. Before the season, the over-under bet on their total number of victories was 4 1/2.

A year ago this week, the Falcons were just off a 31-7 throttling by Tampa Bay. Their season had lapsed into a vegetative state. Their fan base was fractured. Their one-time star quarterback, Michael Vick, had just headed to prison after pleading guilty to dogfighting charges. Still to come was the December surprise --- the defection of head coach Bobby Petrino with three games to go.

"Last year, like every fan in Atlanta, I couldn't wait for the season to be over," Blank said.

"It's a lot more enjoyable, certainly, going to games now."

The kind of rapid healing witnessed here usually is accompanied by a laying on of hands.

A sure sign of moving on: It's significant, Blank notes, that "it's hard to find a Michael Vick jersey in the Dome now. There aren't as many."

Loganville's Ronnie Jackson, a season-ticket holder since 2006, admits he was a Vick loyalist who had plenty of doubts about the direction the team was going.

"I'm excited about the Falcons now," he said last week, before a loss against Denver. "I gotta say, I wasn't behind it 100 percent in the beginning. I wasn't sure about drafting [quarterback Matt] Ryan. Guess that's why I'm a fan and not a general manager."

"People were hesitant going in, with good reason," said linebacker Keith Brooking, the 11th-year Falcon. "People pay a lot of money to watch us perform and put a good product on the field, and it hasn't taken place the last couple of years. But winning cures everything."

How were the Falcons able to engineer such a stunning --- and, frankly, out of character --- reversal of fortune?

At the foundation of the Football renaissance is what, thus far, seems to be an inspired set of hires by Blank. For the first time since Blank bought the team in 2002, his instincts have paired nicely with his desire to build a franchise with staying power.

The man who constructed a home improvement dynasty said he "borrowed heavily from the playbook of Home Depot, which says we hire people based on character, trust and integrity."

Then, he said, he backed off and let the Football people hunker down to work.

With a new year came a new general manager, Thomas Dimitroff, a 40-year-old personnel wonk from the regal New England Patriots . Quickly thereafter, a new head coach was plucked from the defensive meeting rooms of the Jacksonville Jaguars . From Day One, Mike Smith proved himself the personable, professional antidote to the aloof Petrino.

Neither was a splashy choice, but both fit a philosophy that was at the heart of the rebuilding effort. It was the same one the GM and the coach carried on when it was time to retool the roster (there was a 60 percent turnover).

"Mike and I see building a franchise through the same lens," Dimitroff said. "You get the type of player who believes this is a collaborative effort. It's not about getting one sexy, star athlete.

"That was a big thing with us. There was a concerted effort to bring in people who were resilient and could deal with a rebuilding program."

Chief case in point: Signing LaDainian Tomlinson's backup in San Diego, Michael Turner, to a big-money free-agent deal and getting in on the ground level of stardom. Turner currently is third in the league in rushing (971 yards).

The new regime was not timid about getting rid of players who were popular (running back Warrick Dunn and tight end Alge Crumpler) or polarizing (cornerback DeAngelo Hall). It didn't hesitate taking this organizational Mulligan.

Long-term plan

Smart Football people were making very smart decisions. Even more so on draft day, when the Falcons used their hard-won third overall pick on the most highly speculative of positions --- quarterback. They had fallen hard for this tall, strong-armed, brainy kid at Boston College. Ryan has rewarded them with composed performances --- he is 13th in the NFL in overall quarterback rating --- far beyond his experience level.

"[Boston College coach] Jeff Jagodzinski told me Matt Ryan was going to be a star in the NFL. I believed it after watching him last year against Georgia Tech, but I didn't believe it would be this fast," said the Falcons' and Tech's radio broadcaster, Wes Durham.

But the surprises of the season soon will wear off. Then what?

"[Dimitroff and Smith] have not just a short-term vision of how many games can we win this season, but a longer-term vision of how do we build a sustainably successful organization?" Blank said.

"I sleep well at night as a result of that, I really do."

As for Dr. Z, he has not completely bought in. He does not like the Falcons' chances against Carolina (in Charlotte, the Panthers won 24-9 in October). Terming them a "B-level team," he adds, "It is not an elite team if it doesn't have elite players."

The owner doesn't argue. Performance is the only rebuttal that matters. What Blank does offer is a confident statement of intent:

"Our goal is to have a team that this community is proud of, not just because of one year but for a long period of time.

"I really feel we have the parts in place to make that happen. We're not there yet, but we're definitely moving in the right direction."

Falcons TIMELINE

Dec. 10, 2007 --- Michael Vick (right) sentenced to 23 months on federal dogfighting charges. Saints blow out Falcons at the Georgia Dome 34-14 on "Monday Night Football."

Dec. 11, 2007 --- With three games left in the season, first-year coach Bobby Petrino bails for Arkansas job.

Dec. 30, 2007 --- Falcons end dismal 4-12 season with 44-41 victory over Seattle behind interim coach Emmitt Thomas and backup quarterback Chris Redman.

Jan. 12, 2008 --- New England's director of college scouting Thomas Dimitroff hired as new general manager.

Jan. 23, 2008 --- Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith announced as new head coach, the third hired by owner Arthur Blank in five years.

Feb. 15, 2008 --- Roster purge begins with release of veterans Alge Crumpler, Rod Coleman, Byron Leftwich and Wayne Gandy (now back with team).

March 2, 2008 --- Former San Diego backup running back Michael Turner signs six-year, $34.5 million free-agent deal. Team also signs Tennessee tight end Ben Hartsock to four-year, $9 million deal.

March 3, 2008 --- Running back Warrick Dunn released.

March 5, 2008 --- Quarterback Joey Harrington released.

March 20, 2008 --- Controversial cornerback DeAngelo Hall traded to Oakland.

April 26, 2008 --- With third overall pick, Falcons select Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan (right), then trade up to select USC tackle Sam Baker in first round.

Sept. 7, 2008 --- Ryan's first professional pass goes for a 62-yard touchdown to Michael Jenkins. Falcons beat Detroit 34-21 in season opener.

Oct. 12, 2008 --- With 10 games still to play, team equals its win total of last season in unlikeliest of ways against Chicago. Bears score with 11 seconds left to take 20-19 lead. But following a short kickoff, Ryan, with no timeouts, hits Jenkins for 26-yard pass with six seconds left. Jason Elam's 48-yard field goal wins game.